OVC's Four-Team Battle for Byes - NCAAM

The Ohio Valley Conference men's basketball regular season is less than two weeks from completion, and there are still four teams in the running for the #1 seed in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. Which team has the best chance?

Copyright Ohio Valley Conference, 2023

The OVC tournament will only feature the top eight teams of the eleven-school conference, which means that conference standings play a large role for several teams in the bottom half to even have a shot at qualifying for the NCAA tournament - an important automatic berth in a conference that will only see one team selected. 

Seeding matters even more in the OVC when you reach the top few spots. Unlike a traditional 8-team bracket, the OVC will utilize a four-round system with higher seeds receiving a free pass to the next round, similar to the bracket adopted by the Big 10. For the OVC, the top two seeds will receive byes all the way to the semifinal round; the three- and four-seeded teams will have a bye to the quarterfinals; the five- through eight-seeds will play in the first round. Obviously, it's preferable to only have to win two games instead of four to capture the title, hence the importance of seeding.

Copied from ovcsports.com, 2024

The four teams that remain in real contention for the regular season title (and the #1 seed in the conference tournament) are Morehead State (MSU), Little Rock (LR), UT-Martin (UTM), and Western Illinois (WIU). Below is each team's best route to capturing that elusive title.

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Morehead State (11-3)

WIN OUT. 

Copyright Morehead State University Athletics, 2024

The Morehead State Eagles sit alone atop the conference at 11-3, and the easiest way for them to finish in that spot is to win the rest of their games. Currently on a two-game losing streak (Little Rock and UT-Martin), Morehead State has a smooth ride into March - three of their four remaining opponents would not qualify for the conference bracket. The only team that seems to stand in Morehead's way now is Western Illinois, who the Eagles beat handily by 14 in December. All three of Morehead State's OVC losses have come on the road, though, so this Thursday's game at WIU could be a struggle.  

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Little Rock (10-4)

WIN OUT, MSU LOSS

Copyright Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 2024

If WIU defeats MSU on Thursday, and all four top teams close the season winning the rest of their games, there would be a four-way tie for first place at 14-4. Because of the tiebreaker rules put in place by the OVC, Little Rock would emerge as the top team, having the best record against the other tied teams. Like MSU, Little Rock's remaining schedule is weak, with two teams currently not in the bracket and one on the bubble. The Trojans' primary test is Tennessee State on February 29, a rematch of a game that Little Rock lost by 8 back in December.

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UT-Martin (10-4)

WIN OUT, MSU LOSS, LR LOSS

Copyright UTM Athletics, 2023

As with Little Rock, UTM would catapult MSU in a tiebreaker scenario due to its record against the other tied teams. What's fascinating about UT-Martin's remaining schedule is that it features the exact same teams as Little Rock's - they simply trade teams over the next two weeks. UT-Martin beat Tennessee State during the conference opener, but both teams have evolved since then. 

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Western Illinois (10-4)

WIN OUT (includes MSU loss), LR LOSS, UTM LOSS, POTENTIAL COIN FLIP

Copyright BVM Sportsdesk, 2024

Western Illinois has a significantly smaller path to obtaining the top seed - or the double bye for that matter. Even with a revenge win against Morehead State, the Leathernecks would still finish behind both Little Rock and UT-Martin in the tiebreaker scenario. Little Rock defeated WIU in their sole contest, while UTM and WIU split their contests - the tiebreaker would give the edge to UTM, who went 1-1 against Little Rock. 
Of the four championship hopefuls, WIU has the most difficult remaining schedule, with each game against teams fighting to keep a valuable spot or distance themselves from the bubble. After playing Morehead State, WIU will play Southern Indiana - the ninth-place team trying to wiggle its way into the field, then close with Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville - two teams who are comfortably in the five- to eight- seed range but don't want to risk dropping out. 


It will be an exciting two weeks of Ohio Valley Conference basketball leading up to the OVC Tournament, to be held March 6-9 at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

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